The Republican primary is less than 10 weeks away. Republican hopeful Jeanne Ives is facing off against incumbent Governor Bruce Rauner. An early poll by Illinois Review shows that while Ives has an uphill battle ahead of her, she is off to a strong start. The poll, conducted January 8 on Facebook, shows Ives to have a three to one advantage over Rauner among likely Republican primary voters.
As polling season gets underway, it is important to remember the issues that come with polls, especially online:
- The sample size was relatively small, at just 327. Smaller sample sizes can give inaccurate results. A sample size of 200 has a 7.1 percent margin of error, and a sample size of 1000 still has a 3.2 percent margin of error.
- How the poll was conducted also matters. A Facebook poll will always exclude people who don’t use Facebook. Facebook also requires you to use your own name, which can have a chilling effect on political speech.
- The poll was public. While it is easy to assume only Republicans in Illinois read Illinois Review on Facebook, that may or may not be true.
These are issues inherent to online polling and polling in general, not just Illinois Review. If the 2016 election taught us anything, it’s that even the best polls should always be taken with a grain of salt.
For more information on the candidates for governor, check out our campaign headquarters. The primary is March 20.
Springfield Women’s March 2018 – the fruit of anger
Hundreds of people descended on the state capitol this afternoon to attend the 2018 women’s march. This even commemorates the one-year anniversary of Donald Trump becoming president, and the protests that accompanied his election. Progressives from around Central Illinois and down into the Metro area came to keep their movement going.
Getting more women into office was a common theme. Since 2016, the number of female candidates nationwide has expanded dramatically. However, despite its name, the Women’s March focused on a large number issues. Other progressive causes, including DACA, a living wage, and the LGBTQQIP2SAA community were discussed at length. The rally was strongly supportive of the illegal immigrant community and the need for amnesty.
Numerous progressive and Democratic candidates came to the rally to show their support for the cause. Candidates for governor, comptroller, the 13th, 15th, and 18th Congressional districts, the 99th Illinois House, 48th Illinois Senate, and various Sangamon County offices all made an appearance. Below are just some of the candidates who attended the march.
The keynote speaker was Comptroller Susana Mendoza. She spoke about her involvement in the Resist movement, and the importance of keeping the movement going through the election season. You can watch her full remarks below.
After Mendoza’s speech, the crowd marched to the Old State Capitol.
Illinois Comptroller Susana Mendoza’s speech at Springfield Women’s March
Illinois Comptroller Susana Mendoza gave the keynote address at the 2018 Women’s March in Springfield, IL.
Illinois’ Democratic candidates for governor pressed on how high they would raise taxes
Illinois’ Democratic candidates for governor were pressed Friday on how high they would raise taxes. Nearly all of them have said they would push for a graduated income tax, where people and businesses that make more money pay a higher rate.
The six candidates sat before the Chicago Tribune Editorial Board Friday morning, where they were questioned about how high they would make the rates.
J.B. Pritzker, billionaire and heir to the Hyatt hotel fortunes, wouldn’t commit.
“I haven’t put out a range,” he said. “What I’m suggesting is that we negotiate that with the legislature at the time based upon priorities.”
Chris Kennedy said the top rate of his ideal progressive tax shouldn’t be above six percent.
Southern Illinois candidate Bob Daiber has been the only one to reveal what rates he would like to see Illinoisans pay. His proposal would top out at 6 percent for businesses and individuals making over $1 million. This has been criticized by progressives, saying it wouldn’t raise the funds that they would want to increase state spending.
Perennial candidate Robert Marshall is the only one of the six not supportive of a progressive tax. He said the percentages the candidates say now don’t matter since changing it would only require the minimum legislative votes.
“It doesn’t really do any good to try and get the exact figures,” he said. “They’ll make it whatever they want.”
The candidates also offered solutions to Illinois’ shrinking population. Much of their ideas revolved around increasing spending on education, K-12 and public universities to better the state’s workforce.
Later in the panel discussion, the candidates criticized Pritzker and his involvement in wiretapped phone calls with now-imprisoned ex-governor Rod Blagojevich. Pritzker defended the now-infamous conversation as “public service.” Other candidates criticized him, calling him “unelectable” in a general election.
Article by Cole Lauterbach. For more Illinois News Network content, visit ILNews.org Image from the Chicago Tribune’s Facebook Live
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